Do We Have Any Meta-Studies, Evidence-Based Review on What Will Happen to China?

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Ivyman

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Hi Everyone,

Some of my friends and I are getting in a debate about what will happen to China, and whether there are prospects for me (or anyone on this forum) to stay here.

1. One, very intelligent one, thought it would become another Japan or Korea. "Once booming, but now burnt out and in a long decline, especially with old people on pensions."

2. I once read an article that Japan and Korea are on two different trajectories. Japan has these problems; but, Korea will make it.

3. Specific to China, do we have actual evidence-based predictions on will happen?

I miss 2010-2019, as the country was developed to sufficient living standards, jobs were plentiful, and money was good.

The only positive of today is that real estate prices are stagnant or declining. We can find a way to buy some sort of property somewhere in China, and it won't be 10x as expensive ten years from now.

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Escaped Lunatic

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China has a few issues, but none are insurmountable.

1.  Yes, it sucks for those who own a lot of properties, but lower real-estate prices are making life easier for those who need to buy a place.  Personally, I think real estate is still overpriced, but it's definitely not as overpriced.  Now we wait and see.  Does it:

A.  Have a second correction to bring prices even more in line with people's salaries.
B.  Stay fairly flat as salaries increase enough to make it more affordable.
C.  Enter the cyclic boom/bust cycle common in a number of other countries.

The outcome will be hard to predict, since government policies will have a massive influence and there are competing priorities over which priorities get the biggest share of attention.

My personal advice - if you find your dream home and can afford it, get it now so you don't have to worry about what happens to housing prices years or decades from now.

2.  The population has begun to shrink.  If we believe the western press, China would already be 25 years into a "The Last of Us" scenario.  In reality, Chinese people are still having children, but there are more childless people and fewer of thoe who do reproduce opt for a 2nd or 3rd child.  This is NOT uncharted territory.  Numerous countries have population declines, with some having population declines that have continued for decades.  Since China wasn't the first country to face this issue, it can avoid wasting time on some of the "If we do A and B, birthrates will increase" plans that already have failed miserably elsewhere.  The good news is that some of the areas in China with the best incentives for having children are showing noticable improvements in fertility rates, so there's no reason to belive that China can't at least bring fertility numbers up closer to replacement levels.

Add in the progress on humanoid robots and the "how will we care for a growing senior population?" conundrum can be resolved.

3. Economic slowdowns.  This is two-fold.

A.  There's a major trading partner with a bad habit of slapping tariffs and sanctions on any Chinese company that is catching up (or getting into the lead) in various technologies.  Unfortunately, that country has a habit of forcing other countries into following its unilateral sanctions.  Oddly, it now has a president who changes his mind on major issues every 2 to 4 days.

President Xi was VP when that other country almost collapse its entire banking systen during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.  If that ship had sunk then, China (and Europe) would have gone down too.  Expanding Chinese markets overseas needed to be done, but so much of the rest of the world was very poor.  This is why one of the first initiatives Xi took when he became president was to create the Belt and Road initiative to help other countries (mostly developing countries) improve their economic capacity.  So far, it's working.  Trade with developing countries has HUGELY increased, so issues with that other country affect a much smaller percentage of China's imports and exports than they used to.

B.  Chinese consumers are still a bit too good at saving money.  This is mostly lingering worries about needing financial reserves in case of another crisis like Covid or from trade issues.  In this case, there are already signs of a turn around.  Consumer spending is growing, but the increase is slower than desirable.  The good news is that each month that things keep showing signs of even very modest improvement provides more confidence for the next month.  Some spending incentives like trade-ins for various household goods are also helping.  I believe we'll see some other types of incentives tried here and there to find the best way to get consumer spending growing in a faster and more self-sustaining way.
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kitano

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Just a pretty uninformed point, although Japan is famous for having 20 years of 0% growth or whatever, when you go there it's still a great place, like when I went I spent time just walking around the suburbs because it's so clean and relaxed. China will never be Japan just because it's a really different place, but even with the apparent slowing economy, it's still a safe place and the infrastructure is getting better and better.
I think that the decline of the USA is going to make China rich as well, never lived there but from the news the US seems to be commiting suicide

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Ivyman

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Thank you for all the points.

You mix theoretical economics and practical insight ("common sense"?). Unfortunately, most economic experts fail at the latter.

It sounds like I will be okay in China. It is just a question of whether my best effort saves me $2K USD a month (bad economy) or $4K+ USD a month (boom economy).

Just keep working hard, learning in the classroom and on the job, saving more, investing in international retirement accounts.