• Home
  • Search
    •  
  • Login
    • Username: Password:

      Did you miss your activation email?

Author Topic: What drives development?  (Read 1330 times)

cruisemonkey

  • Barfly
  • *
  • Posts: 1236
  • You could be next.
Re: What drives development?
« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2017, 11:48:15 AM »
People's beliefs influence aggregate demand - the trick is to get out 1 minute before the collapse and not a moment sooner. Financial chicken, or perhaps musical chairs. Gotta get while the getting is good.

Like today's stock market. With low interest rates you should be putting any cash into stocks... which are going to exponentially increase in value until the next big crash in one to one-and-a-half years. The trouble is... you will watch your money growing... faster and faster... as more and more people jump on the bandwagon to get rich... and be unable to bring yourself to 'sell'... until, suddenly with no warning - CRASH! Welcome to the poorhouse.
The Koreans once gave me five minutes notice - I didn't know what to do with the extra time.

Calach Pfeffer

  • Barfly
  • *
  • Posts: 6984
Re: What drives development?
« Reply #16 on: May 02, 2017, 12:10:08 PM »
I read once that a Chinese real-estate bubble can't exist because bubbles need someone to pop them - to no longer believe - but Chinese will never not believe in "land". They'd have to, for instance, have somewhere, anywhere, else to put their money that's not a bank.
There is little in history to support the proposition that China was indeed the centre of the Asian universe commanding deference among less civilised states around its periphery...

kitano

  • Barfly
  • *
  • Posts: 2471
    • Children of the Atom
Re: What drives development?
« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2017, 06:40:05 AM »
This is what has been on my mind a lot

In my time in China, it's so interesting how in 2009 when I arrived it was still this miracle how many people had parents who grew up hungry who now lives modern cities and have interesting jobs etc
Of course most of the population is still poor, but they felt involved because they were also working in a society moving forward
But now in the rich bits they just keep building malls and office buildings. its like with iPhones, it isn't new anymore and they can't just keep making the same thing again and again

the guys who build the luxury apartments are classed as migrants and have to  live in temporary houses all year except when they go back to their village
Why are they not having them build cool stuff for themselves instead of these rich people who don't exist
That would be the advantage of having such an authoritarian government, they could actually make huge things because they are good ideas, and not have to justify it to everyone.

Escaped Lunatic

  • Global Moderator
  • *****
  • Posts: 9349
  • Finding new ways to conquer the world
    • EscapedLunatic.com
Re: What drives development?
« Reply #18 on: June 01, 2017, 03:03:34 AM »
I read once that a Chinese real-estate bubble can't exist because bubbles need someone to pop them - to no longer believe - but Chinese will never not believe in "land". They'd have to, for instance, have somewhere, anywhere, else to put their money that's not a bank.

And when an apartment sells for 100,000 per square meter, it won't matter what they believe - only the richest of the rich will be able to afford apartments and rents won't even cover the interest on a housing loan.  As more people decide to rent out their investments, that will reduce rental rates even more.  Demand will fall behind supply, and prices will have only one direction to go.

China's stock market has had a number of "corrections" despite everyone wanting to believe.  All it takes to trigger a bubble popping is a small price pullback and someone bringing up all the numerous real estate bubbles that popped around the world.

Bubbles have happened before.  Bubbles are happening now.  Bubbles will surely happen again.  The problem is figuring out when to buy, when to hold, and when to pull the ripcord.  If prices have already gone into a steep dive, then it's too late.
I'm pro-cloning and we vote!
EscapedLunatic.com