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Author Topic: e-Vehicles: how long until China bans cars?  (Read 1079 times)

Escaped Lunatic

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Re: e-Vehicles: how long until China bans cars?
« Reply #15 on: January 02, 2017, 01:27:08 AM »
Making all the golf carts electric would only be a small step, but at least it would result in electric outlets near more parking spaces.

Optimally, some US or European car maker would work out a long term tech licensing deal with one of China's big car companies.
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Calach Pfeffer

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Re: e-Vehicles: how long until China bans cars?
« Reply #16 on: January 02, 2017, 05:42:55 AM »
Optimally, some US or European car maker would work out a long term tech licensing deal with one of China's big car companies.

Ne-e-e-eve-e-e-e-rrr gonna happen. Car manufacturing is a long way from internet services, but for no good reason that I can make clear, I reckon the Alibaba/Tencent/Baidu development model is going to apply to e-cars. Mostly, I think, because the key in e-cars is battery tech. China never could reinvent the internal combustion engine the way it reinvented Facebook, MSN Messenger, Google, and Whatsapp because the technology was essentially mature in the rest of the world, and backed by heavily entrenched interests. Compared to petroleum and car manufacturing, internet stocks were weak sisters and ripe for being ripped off. And I speculate that technologies enabling long term electricity storage and which improve the range of e-vehicles are similarly weakly guarded. They barely exist and aren't entrenched at all. I saw an article the other day pointing out, for instance, that whole swathes of the US population don't even know that electric cars exist.

Maybe the fact it needs to be manufactured will help keep the tech global and the playing field level(ish). But finding out that suddenly there exist a protected set of China-centric companies that don't deal with the outside world is at least equally as likely.

IMO
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Escaped Lunatic

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Re: e-Vehicles: how long until China bans cars?
« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2017, 12:42:44 AM »
At this point, they'll be stuck buying imports and trying to reverse-engineer everything.  Licensing can happen, but the contracts have to be very carefully written.

As an alternative to licensing to manufacture locally, China could build the cars and buy the battery systems and charging systems from an overseas source.  Most cars are already assembled from parts subcontracted around the world, so this wouldn't exactly be a groundbreaking concept to either side of the bargain.  Imagine if Tesla's V3 (or V4) batteries and chargers were purchased by Chinese manufacturers.  China could become the largest producer of EVs within a year or two, and Tesla could make more money selling battery systems to China than it does selling cars around the world.
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Calach Pfeffer

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Re: e-Vehicles: how long until China bans cars?
« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2017, 04:55:09 AM »
Come to think of it, I'm pretty sure I saw an article recently claiming that in the near future electric car manufacturers will be allowed to operate in China without having to share their technology. Previously, and currently still, foreign car manufacturers can only operate in China as a joint venture. In this posited near future, e-car manufacturing won't have to have a Chinese partner. Sounds kind of revolutionary, so I might be getting the details wrong, but I think that was the gist.

But... if China's leadership wants electric vehicles and international companies are going to keep betting on petrol vehicles, then kinda sorta seems to me like leaving that technology on the table. One future, one I *might* bet on, looks like car companies outside China are going to turn around in a few years and find themselves out of this loop.

http://sustainability.thomsonreuters.com/2016/09/06/in-chinas-electric-car-boom-global-automakers-select-different-gear/


One assumption I'm making, which might be questionable, is that whatever battery and power tech does appear will find its way into Chinese hands whether it wants to be there or not. Maybe Chinese agents are not as super stealthy as all that, and maybe shanzhai is the only way these companies really can go, but ... wild leap... Baidu/Tencent/Alibaba are no long mere clones. If the gov really does push for e-tech and really does prop up these car companies until they make it.......
« Last Edit: January 03, 2017, 05:03:55 AM by Calach Pfeffer »
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