What's in the News

[Escaped Lunatic]

I think the government was hoping the 2 child limit would result in a larger increase in the birth rate than actually happened.  As living standards increase, the number of 0 and 1 child families tends to rise in nearly every country.  Poverty eradication efforts reduce the "I need lots of kids to keep me fed in my old age" mindset.

I think it now comes down to "how to we get more children, but not an excessively large supply of children?"  Maybe some special exceptions like the old 1 child policy could be applied to the 2 child policy.  Maybe a 3 child policy would be needed.  Or, maybe unlimited is what we'll see in a few years.  I'd love to see how they set up their computer models to analyze the probable outcomes of different policy changes.

[Calach Pfeffer]

I don't get any sense of what a large Chinese family would look like. It'd be damn interesting to find out, I guess. But I don't know anyone who is geared to that kind of functioning. For giggles I sometimes ask classes about having kids and I get no sense at all that anyone knows what a family is beyond the usual pressure funnel: 4 grandparents press on 2 parents who press on 1 child. Asking about 2 or more children is like saying that model is wrong, which makes people look at me sideways.

[Granny Mae]

I hadn't really thought about it, but perhaps it explains my observations of Chinese folks at "the den". I find many of them to be all about themselves and what they can get. I guess that they don't really have to consider anyone else if they grow up in a small family.

[Escaped Lunatic]

What's amazing to me is the number of Chinese families who "missed the memo".  I know a lot of people born after the original policy who have one or more younger siblings.  Also, penalties varied widely.  I've met a few parents who said "It's ok, we'll just pay the fine."  Don't forget that the the old policy had quite a few exceptions.  Of those with families I've met, I don't think I know very many only children with no aunts or uncles.

As standards of living improve, average family sizes go down.  Individual exceptions happen, but the averages hold up well around the world.  If things continue on this path, world populations should peak somewhere in the 10-11 billion range, and then will start to slowly decline.  Who knows, some countries may eventually put in a minimum 2 children per couple policy.

[Granny Mae]

I like to sit and observe people in my local shopping centre and other places. I am constantly saying that if I were in charge, I wouldn't allow 90% of people to breed.

[Calach Pfeffer]

Not Feeling Safe in China

American academic leaves China after losing his post, saying that “China has reached a point where I do not feel safe being a professor and discussing even the economy, business and financial markets.”

By Elizabeth Redden
July 23, 2018

An American professor who lost his post at an elite Chinese university is now leaving China, citing concerns about his personal safety.

“China has reached a point where I do not feel safe being a professor and discussing even the economy, business and financial markets,” Christopher Balding wrote in a blog post about his departure from Peking University HSBC Business School, in Shenzhen, and his subsequent decision to leave China.

Balding has a prolific presence on Twitter, which is blocked in China, and frequently appears in the media commenting on issues related to the Chinese economy, including as a television commentator for Bloomberg and in opinion pieces for Bloomberg and Foreign Policy. In August of last year, Balding spearheaded a petition calling on Cambridge University Press to resist the Chinese government’s demand that it censor articles in the China Quarterly journal. (Cambridge originally assented to the government’s request to block access to hundreds of journal articles in mainland China, but reversed course after coming under heavy criticism from academics like Balding.)...

[Just Like Mr Benn]

probably a good idea. I didn't think he was safe either. In fact I was waiting for him to be deported to establish some canary in a coalmine parameters for just how vocal an opponent of the government one could be.

[Calach Pfeffer]

Chinese leadership is facing a rare backlash for its handling of the US trade dispute

A growing trade war with the United States is causing rifts within China's Communist Party, with some critics saying that an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the U.S. position, according to four sources close to the government.

President Xi Jinping still has a firm grip on power, but an unusual surge of criticism about economic policy and how the government has handled the trade war has revealed rare cracks in the ruling Communist Party.

A backlash is being felt at the highest levels of the government, possibly hitting a close aide to Xi, his ideology chief and strategist Wang Huning, according to two sources familiar with discussions in leadership circles....

[Calach Pfeffer]

United Nations fears more than one million could be detained in China in ‘secret internment camp’

CHINA could have more than one million people detained in what United Nations officials have described as a “massive internment camp that is shrouded in secrecy”.

Many credible reports suggest that Uighurs and Muslim minorities have been forced into “political camps for indoctrination” in western Xinjiang, according to the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination.

Western Xinjian is an autonomous region of China, and UN officials believe Beijing could be treating ethnic minorities as “enemies of the state”....