Fall of the American Empire?

Seen on a left-wing mailing list:

We're headed for a slightly upscale version of the Soviet collapse, replete with a failed war on Afghanistan and Gulf-o-nobyl.

Sounds correct to me, unfortunately.

Yea, I would agree with that too.

I don't buy it. I reckon there'll definitely be a geopolitical shift, and a somewhat multi-polar world will emerge, but this isn't the definitive decline of America, rather the rise of the rest.

The unipolar moment is over, but that was never gonna last. Time to get used to being the biggest country among bigger contemporaries.

America will rise out of this current muddle, it has an enormous facility for regeneration, more than anywhere else in the world.

An interesting one.  What does it take to rise?  Generally rises occur from confidence - in strength, goal etc.  Falls occur through loss of strength, internal weaknesses, corruption etc.  

Most falls appear to have occurred when the people still believed in their own/country rectitude, but were not seeing below the surface.

One of the things that comes across to me, as an outsider, is that America/ns now seem to be more fearful, more insecure, and therefore more aggressively defensive than previously.  I am not sure how this plays out in looking for a rise.  A rise fuelled by fear implies aggression in one or more forms.  

If we look at China, I see parallels. China fears the US in particular, other countries to a greater or lesser degree.  This fear drives the development of the military.  It also fears those within its borders. Dissent is 'discouraged' - and this seems to occur in the US as well.  Media is both countries seems to follow the 'right' line - support for military, strength required against China/US - other 'enemies',

Will both countries rise in fear of the other?  China is determined to topple the US economic leadership, it is already 2nd in military strength and devotes an enormous percentage of budget to increasing military strength. And this from a country that  still vociferously sees itself as 'developing'.  The US is certainly not cutting back on its military spending.  Including non-DOD expenditures, defense spending was approximately 25–29% of budgeted expenditures and 38–44% of estimated tax revenues. That's a LOT of money headed into maintaining pole position.

The other question - what if they both fall?  If China's housing bubble bursts then a world wide financial fallout will occur.  Even the Chinese gov't has recognised that it HAS to continue with 8% or more growth to maintain social stability.  Any drop below that could be ... interesting.   To maintain that growth, China must have 15% of the world market - currently it has around 10%,  Where does that additional 5% come from?  Internally - yes and no.  To increase exports prices need to be kept low - in turn meaning low wages.  Low wages means no growth in the internal market.  Will Europe be importing more?  Not really, given its current financial status, and the US ?  Also needs market share and the financial problems are still biting there.  That leaves taking over markets from other developing countries.

Any further problems with the US financial status will again create international problems.  And China will want to hedge against this.  US markets are contracting, with European economic failures, and there are predictions of double dip recession.  How many more stimulus packages can the US gov't find?

i think we are heading for another world changing period like the 30s and 40s in the 20th century. capitalism will keep running into these crises, it's a design flaw

it's also important to remember as well that despite all the hype, these new superpowers (Brazil, Russia, India and China)still have massive problems of their own, away from the centres of wealth China doesn't feel all that much like the future of the world and I'd imagine the same about the other 3

There are differences bewteen events in the past that knocked the States and recent ones. In the past, the US was able to recoup. What has happened in the last decade are things that may be harder to come back from.

Before, the world required strong leaders, be it England, the US or even the USSR. Now many states are working as a group such as West Africa, South Asia, South America, the Caribbean or Europe. I'm sure there are many countries that would like to see America topple or not care either way.

Even though the US is still the world's number one purchaser, the second, third and forth place markets are not so distantly behind as they once were. The world economic face has changed and the landscape will keep shifting. I don't know what is good or bad, but I do know it will be different

What people don't discuss much is the fact that in the U.S. we have a whole generation of idealistic fools that have effectively handcuffed the growth of this nation; and where there is growth it has been reckless.

I'm talking about the baby boomer generation.

They are currently at the peak of their influence on governance and business. We are seeing the results of this inept generation.

Until competence returns to our organizational structures, we will continue to see decline. In my outsider's opinion of China, it is successful because China's governance is rooted in pragmatism (almost to fault) and refusal to accept bullshit.

I could be wrong...

America's future is being fought out now, a showdown between the entrenched special interests (big business, right wing media, military industrial complex, etc.) and elected government.  At the moment it seems the former has the momentum.

Corruption has been a central factor in every empire's collapse.

While I was glad to see the USA's excesses blow up in her face, I am downright frightened at the prospect of an American collapse.  For all the nasty things that country has perpetrated, they did far more good than harm.  To look at that crew of up-and-comers, which one's principles do you trust?  China's?  India's?  Brazil's?  Russia's?

I for one pray America fixes her shit, and fast.

To look at that crew of up-and-comers, which one's principles do you trust?  China's?  India's?  Brazil's?  Russia's? 

To answer your question, none

But what about established countries you could trust FOR THE MOST PART?  England, Japan, Germany, Leichenstein

What prinicples has Lichtenstein betrayed? The others you mention have all have committed their crimes against humanity, but little L hasn't had a chance yet.

(Hmm, am I beginning to sound like a clip from The Mouse That Roared? Wasn't my intention, but thinking about it...)

No doubt the Gulf Oil "Crisis" will contribute to America's numerous woes.
http://oilprice.com/Environment/Oil-Spills/Government-Insiders-Get-Ready-for-the-Gulf-Dead-Zone.html

FYI - I literally live directly on the Gulf of Mexico. I plan on evacuating by the end of July. Also, my BF's neighbor is an infectious disease doctor. He has already been in meetings about the evacuation. This is just confirmation of what I suspect is soon to come.  

Until competence returns to our organizational structures, we will continue to see decline.

Its not incompetence. It is population control. They know exactly what they are doing.

...we have a whole generation of idealistic fools that have effectively handcuffed the growth of this nation;

Yes.  That annoying and inefficient insistence on environmental protection, individual rights and consumer protection is a real drag on GDP.  And so.....'60s.