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Author Topic: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall... (THE VISA NIGHTMARE!)  (Read 111571 times)

Lotus Eater

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2008, 09:44:21 AM »
Depends on how much money the Chinese partners would lose and how much guanxi those partners have in the system.

latefordinner

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #31 on: April 29, 2008, 11:38:08 AM »
DS:
I think if the large corporations can't get their experts into the country for inspections, reviews and onsite work, they should shut the company down until they can get their people in.
I really hate to advocate playing hardball when there are (usually) mutually beneficial means of compromise, but this is beginning to look more and more like the fall-back position of choice. Don't most JV contracts have a "force-majeure" clause? This is what it's for, don't be afraid to use it.

Raoul F. Duke

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #32 on: April 29, 2008, 04:48:27 PM »
Depends on how much money the Chinese partners would lose and how much guanxi those partners have in the system.
This is IMHO the best answer on this subthread so far. I think the reality is that no  country is going to be very eager to piss off our hosts here and the trillions in trade they'll generate; the stakes would have to be extremely high indeed before that happened.
Certain controversial large islands may well not be high enough stakes; we wanquerines most certainly will not be.
On the other side...the Chinese are if nothing else an extremely pragmatic people when they need to be. I think it's pretty safe to say that the foreign experts really needed to keep the wheels spinning will ultimately be allowed to find some means of getting here that won't trigger World War III.

And now, please step this way with me and we'll rejoin the thread, already in progress.

I think the visa changes will likely create some bizarre and, for some, potentially very ugly effects (and for others, quite lovely effects) in the schools. State schools- public schools and unis- will become premium jobs by virtue of their ability to legitimately issue residence permits. These places may start to enjoy a much greater ability to selectively shop for what they see as the most qualified teachers, and see a greatly increased level of control over the teachers they do hire. "Qualified" would probably increasingly include a willingness to play ball on some, well, uh, unique  practices in Chinese education such as selling grades or rampant exam cheating or never failing any student whose family paid the tuition in full. Overly annoying your State school employer, without the ability to say "f*ck it" and work on F or L visas, could become an express ticket out of the country.

At the same time, a lot of private schools, many of which already struggle to find enough foreign teachers to cover demand, could start finding themselves with classes that don't have a foreign face at their front. In such a case they could be fighting tooth-and-nail for the part-time hours of the State school teachers. Salaries for these gigs would go up...as would the conditions teachers could demand before accepting a job. I think even some of the older, well-established private schools could feel the squeeze, because I feel it may be possible that the necessary clout level of local partners able to wrangle residence permits for non-State schools has just risen a few notches.

Some "training centers" would have to fold up and bolt the doors.

Some teachers, unable to land a State school job, would have to pack up and go elsewhere.

Like, out of China. And I think there are probably a helluva lot of people teaching here that would not qualify as teachers in very many other countries. At least, not very many other countries any sane person would ever even consider going to.

I think upcoming athletic spectaculars may be making a very convenient cover for all sorts of things. I have to wonder if maybe the herd isn't being thinned to limit our cultural influence, curb excessive behavior (like mine agagagagag), and keep our numbers low enough to control. I have to wonder if the mainstream educational bureaucracy is moving to assert control over a larger cut of the market, away from all these capitalist upstarts.

Eventually, I think this wave will partially roll back as do many others. The idea of rigorous adherence to the law has never really taken hold in China, and after a while people here will start to "cooperate" again and make another boatload of money. But it will take time to get there.

But then, I haven't slept in over 40 hours. I could be wrong. agagagagag
« Last Edit: April 29, 2008, 05:08:41 PM by Raoul Duke »
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contemporarydog

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #33 on: April 29, 2008, 05:12:23 PM »
 iiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiiii

(Re. 40 hours)  uuuuuuuuuu
It is too early to say.

Raoul F. Duke

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #34 on: April 29, 2008, 05:41:14 PM »
I wish. alalalalal
I have, well, a flatmate who's just naturally kinda there enough for all of us already. aoaoaoaoao
"Vicodin and dumplings...it's a great combination!" (Anthony Bourdain, in Harbin)

"Here in China we aren't just teaching...
we're building the corrupt, incompetent, baijiu-swilling buttheads of tomorrow!" (Raoul F. Duke)

James the Brit

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #35 on: April 29, 2008, 07:47:41 PM »
I think quite a few schools in Beijing are going to fold over the summer, because of the visa situation. Especially the schools that dont hand out Z visas. My school is planning for a staff crisis. They are asking us all when our visas will expire and employing any teacher they can get their hands on.

ericthered

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #36 on: April 29, 2008, 09:01:59 PM »
So basically, Jefe, what you're saying is that this time next year things will be back to their normal, lazy, wonderfully corrupt self?
"Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination." Oscar Wilde.

"It's all oojah cum spiffy". Bertie Wooster.
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Raoul F. Duke

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #37 on: April 29, 2008, 09:43:59 PM »
Not at all.
I see no reason to assume that things will ever be quite the same again. They may loosen up some again, but as I said above, I think all this could be about much more than just the Olympics. I don't think the new framework will just drop away again when The Games are over.

Major change from here will likely take more than one year.
"Vicodin and dumplings...it's a great combination!" (Anthony Bourdain, in Harbin)

"Here in China we aren't just teaching...
we're building the corrupt, incompetent, baijiu-swilling buttheads of tomorrow!" (Raoul F. Duke)

non-dave

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #38 on: May 01, 2008, 09:11:01 AM »
A few recent personal experiences to add...

My Dad just came over from Oz and had to have a itinerary for his trip before they would issue the visa. I sent a very general one to him (no addresses or reservations - just the names of the different cities we would be in) and it was fine. He got a 30 day L visa.

Upon arriving in Yolanda's hometown in the boonies of Heilongjiang we were visited by the local PSB. We were summoned to the police station and had to register ourselves. This is about my 10th visit there - the 3rd since moving to Dongguan - and this is the first time the police have shown any interest at all. We just had to register and talk our way out of a 1000RMB fine for being late (should have done it within 24 hours) - but it sure indicates that everyone is on high-alert at the moment.
You have to care for it to matter.
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GwaiLower

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #39 on: May 06, 2008, 03:29:46 PM »
My boss/ Coworker, our line builder is stuck in HK right now waiting on his temp Visa to get in to check our shoe samples and deal with some quality control issues, open new tanneries etc.  Hes been there for a few days already. Actually he's supposed to be getting it today but it IS a major headache for companies like ours.  So they are screwing up the visas that allow business guys like us in who have a much bigger effect on the cash flow into China.(No offense to anyone working for small potatoes o'er there.  HEll sometimes Im totally jealous of you all.  Id love to just drop the stress -and debt-mortgage - wife, etc and just move in w/ my Chinese GF and teach)

We are a multinational footwear company.  We own the factory we manufacture in and then have independent distributors (still owned by the same umbrella company though) in several countries including the largest one here in the USA.  We also sell our product -or cheaper versions of it, in the domestic Chinese market.

My next trip as a designer is going to be mid July to work on our Fall/Winter 09 product line.  So thats going to be right in the thick of it.  I'm not going near Beijing though, I go to Fuzhian and GZ.  My Visa is fairly new and its a full year multi entry business.

Nobody has heard anything yet about canceling or messing with pre-existing still valid multis have they???


cheekygal

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2008, 01:03:44 AM »
They won't cancel pre-existent visas. But it will be hard to get new visa.

adamsmith

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2008, 04:10:53 AM »
My paperwork went in yesterday for the renewal process for my residence permit here in Wuhan. I am still keeping my fingers crossed that there will be no problem. The FAO keeps reassuring me that there is no problem so I just hope she is right.
I will let you know the result when I have everything back signed sealed and delivered.

contemporarydog

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2008, 10:35:21 AM »
Some fuckwit on China Daily is trying to argue that China should be as strict as the UK, USA etc about issuing visas.

If it was, nobody would come to teach here at all.
It is too early to say.

china-matt

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2008, 11:37:18 AM »
My boss mentioned the other day that the university is having a difficult time getting 6-month visas for the Korean students. If they can't stay, they can't study, which means no tuition fees and no Chinese class for me.
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dgwest7

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Re: A Hard Rain's Gonna Fall...
« Reply #44 on: May 14, 2008, 04:10:10 AM »
This is just coming up as a general notice to readers that the visa situation in China is rapidly descending into madness. We are experiencing a massive crackdown on visas in the months leading up to the Olympics.

I am in Kunming on an F visa, and need to leave the country to convert to a z visa.

Does anyone know for sure whether a z visa can be obtained in Hong Kong?

Best regards

David