Depends on how much money the Chinese partners would lose and how much guanxi those partners have in the system.
This is IMHO the best answer on this subthread so far. I think the reality is that
no country is going to be very eager to piss off our hosts here and the trillions in trade they'll generate; the stakes would have to be extremely high indeed before that happened.
Certain controversial large islands may well not be high enough stakes; we wanquerines most certainly will not be.
On the other side...the Chinese are if nothing else an extremely pragmatic people when they need to be. I think it's pretty safe to say that the foreign experts really needed to keep the wheels spinning will ultimately be allowed to find some means of getting here that won't trigger World War III.
And now, please step this way with me and we'll rejoin the thread, already in progress.
I think the visa changes will likely create some bizarre and, for some, potentially very ugly effects (and for others, quite lovely effects) in the schools. State schools- public schools and unis- will become premium jobs by virtue of their ability to legitimately issue residence permits. These places may start to enjoy a much greater ability to selectively shop for what they see as the most qualified teachers, and see a greatly increased level of control over the teachers they do hire. "Qualified" would probably increasingly include a willingness to play ball on some, well, uh,
unique practices in Chinese education such as selling grades or rampant exam cheating or never failing any student whose family paid the tuition in full. Overly annoying your State school employer, without the ability to say "f*ck it" and work on F or L visas, could become an express ticket out of the country.
At the same time, a lot of private schools, many of which already struggle to find enough foreign teachers to cover demand, could start finding themselves with classes that don't have a foreign face at their front. In such a case they could be fighting tooth-and-nail for the part-time hours of the State school teachers. Salaries for these gigs would go up...as would the conditions teachers could demand before accepting a job. I think even some of the older, well-established private schools could feel the squeeze, because I feel it may be possible that the necessary clout level of local partners able to wrangle residence permits for non-State schools has just risen a few notches.
Some "training centers" would have to fold up and bolt the doors.
Some teachers, unable to land a State school job, would have to pack up and go elsewhere.
Like, out of China. And I think there are probably a helluva lot of people teaching here that would not qualify as teachers in very many other countries. At least, not very many other countries any sane person would ever even consider going to.
I think upcoming athletic spectaculars may be making a very convenient cover for all sorts of things. I have to wonder if maybe the herd isn't being thinned to limit our cultural influence, curb excessive behavior (like mine
), and keep our numbers low enough to control. I have to wonder if the mainstream educational bureaucracy is moving to assert control over a larger cut of the market, away from all these capitalist upstarts.
Eventually, I think this wave will partially roll back as do many others. The idea of rigorous adherence to the law has never really taken hold in China, and after a while people here will start to "cooperate" again and make another boatload of money. But it will take time to get there.
But then, I haven't slept in over 40 hours. I could be wrong.
