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Author Topic: Will China take over the world?  (Read 553 times)

Calach Pfeffer

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Will China take over the world?
« on: August 14, 2018, 11:44:54 PM »
As in, become the hegemon.

Will China become the dominant influence and/or authority in the world?

I would have said no. I would have said there are and have always been only three factors behind China's rise. Well, four. A large population, an artificial but effective unification under one party rule, and a world' worth of borrowed tools. Plus preexisting globalisation. It's the "borrowed tools" feature that strikes me as important just now. China didn't invent manufacturing as it is performed these days. Nor mining, nor construction, nor banking. (Nor did China create a global context in which people, goods and money move with relative freedom across borders.) So in what sense is China going to create the next generation of tools? Where will the layer of wealth come from? Inside China? I would have said no.

But with that collection of borrowed tools, the large population, and the invented unity of purpose, China sure does seem influential.

» now with New and Endlessly Improving CV 4U  ٩( ᐛ )و

Granny Mae

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Re: Will China take over the world?
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2018, 10:17:55 PM »
Calach, when I see the number of Chinese people in Brisbane, I wouldn't be surprised if they took over Oz. When I walk past the very high stakes gaming tables, I don't see any anglo faces either. bjbjbjbjbj

Escaped Lunatic

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Re: Will China take over the world?
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2018, 02:40:51 AM »
GM, I figured out why you've got so many high stakes gamblers.  China limits the number of times people can go to Macau every year.  I'm sure there are more reasons, but one of the big ones is that a few too many company bosses managed to bankrupt their companies at the high stakes tables.  Those who REALLY want to gamble more have to travel greater distances to place their bets.

But with that collection of borrowed tools, the large population, and the invented unity of purpose, China sure does seem influential.

China already knows that it's got to start developing it's own innovations instead of just producing what others design.  It won't be an instant transition, but major signs of change in this direction are already visible.  Check out the number of patents filed.

http://www.ipwatchdog.com/2017/12/12/wipo-stats-patent-application-filings-china-lead/id=90855/

And Chinese companies and individuals represent one of the largest segments filing for US patents.  The numbers are still relatively small, but the growth rate is impressive.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/china-enters-top-5-of-u-s-patent-recipients-for-the-first-time

Right now, China's in the number 5 spot.  Unless something very surprising happens, it will be at number 3 in only 2 or 3 more years and will be challenging Japan for the #2 spot on the list only a few years later.


I don't see "taking over the world" happening anytime soon.  I do see China continuing to grow more rapidly and steadily than the US.  I believe the real questions come down to:

1.  Will the US take concrete steps to reverse the decline of its K-12 education system?

2.  Will US culture shift away from being so extremely "It's all about MEEEE!" and realize that a small amount of cooperation and compromise can make a big difference?

3.  Will US politicians wake up to the fact that they've divided the country so deeply that even the most innocent discussions frequently spontaneously devolve into hateful political arguments?

4.  Will US politicians realize that if they don't deal with all of the above, the country will continue to lose ground even as China and other nations rise?

Even if the answers to these questions are all No, that doesn't mean China will take over the world.  What it would mean is that China won't be the only country to pass the US in one economic area after another.  I have a bad feeling the US will have to fall to somewhere in the range of #3-#5 in the world economy before enough people demand that some of the core issues be fixed.  Or, maybe the US will end up emulating the UK.  Less than 100 years ago, the UK was the world's biggest super-power.  It's still a strong country, but is only a shadow of what it used to be.


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Calach Pfeffer

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Re: Will China take over the world?
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2018, 06:31:48 AM »
I don't think China does have a wealth of new ideas really. If patent fillings are up, it's not creativity per se that's driving it. I'd claim it's straightforward control of the means of production. A billion iterative developments on existing productive technology is pretty compelling in itself, of course. And the occasional leap forward, like China's move into cyberspace. That could be a compelling space for innovation - connectivity. All that big data, surveillance, and friending/liking/buying go together and could make something really different... Maybe that is where China takes over.

China would probably have to start exporting some of that Tencent/Alibaba/Baidu tech first, wouldn't they? They'd have to share. Or would they?

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Calach Pfeffer

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Re: Will China take over the world?
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2018, 12:04:58 AM »
Also...

China is conducting fewer local policy experiments under Xi Jinping

Excerpt: Fear of trying

...Nonetheless, as in any country, let alone one as vast and varied as China, a suck-it-and-see approach yields better results than deciding everything centrally. Alas, under President Xi Jinping, experimentation of any kind has become harder. In 2010—two years before Mr Xi took over—around 500 policy-related pilot projects were being carried out at the provincial level, reckons Sebastian Heilmann of the University of Trier in Germany. By 2016 the number had dropped to about 70...

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Granny Mae

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Re: Will China take over the world?
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2018, 10:02:23 PM »
I'm noticing that a lot of advertisements in Oz have an Asian (Chinese?) person in them in some capacity. bjbjbjbjbj