What's in the News

I think the government was hoping the 2 child limit would result in a larger increase in the birth rate than actually happened.  As living standards increase, the number of 0 and 1 child families tends to rise in nearly every country.  Poverty eradication efforts reduce the "I need lots of kids to keep me fed in my old age" mindset.

I think it now comes down to "how to we get more children, but not an excessively large supply of children?"  Maybe some special exceptions like the old 1 child policy could be applied to the 2 child policy.  Maybe a 3 child policy would be needed.  Or, maybe unlimited is what we'll see in a few years.  I'd love to see how they set up their computer models to analyze the probable outcomes of different policy changes.

I don't get any sense of what a large Chinese family would look like. It'd be damn interesting to find out, I guess. But I don't know anyone who is geared to that kind of functioning. For giggles I sometimes ask classes about having kids and I get no sense at all that anyone knows what a family is beyond the usual pressure funnel: 4 grandparents press on 2 parents who press on 1 child. Asking about 2 or more children is like saying that model is wrong, which makes people look at me sideways.

I hadn't really thought about it, but perhaps it explains my observations of Chinese folks at "the den". I find many of them to be all about themselves and what they can get. I guess that they don't really have to consider anyone else if they grow up in a small family.

What's amazing to me is the number of Chinese families who "missed the memo".  I know a lot of people born after the original policy who have one or more younger siblings.  Also, penalties varied widely.  I've met a few parents who said "It's ok, we'll just pay the fine."  Don't forget that the the old policy had quite a few exceptions.  Of those with families I've met, I don't think I know very many only children with no aunts or uncles.

As standards of living improve, average family sizes go down.  Individual exceptions happen, but the averages hold up well around the world.  If things continue on this path, world populations should peak somewhere in the 10-11 billion range, and then will start to slowly decline.  Who knows, some countries may eventually put in a minimum 2 children per couple policy.

I like to sit and observe people in my local shopping centre and other places. I am constantly saying that if I were in charge, I wouldn't allow 90% of people to breed.

Not Feeling Safe in China

American academic leaves China after losing his post, saying that “China has reached a point where I do not feel safe being a professor and discussing even the economy, business and financial markets.”

By Elizabeth Redden
July 23, 2018

An American professor who lost his post at an elite Chinese university is now leaving China, citing concerns about his personal safety.

“China has reached a point where I do not feel safe being a professor and discussing even the economy, business and financial markets,” Christopher Balding wrote in a blog post about his departure from Peking University HSBC Business School, in Shenzhen, and his subsequent decision to leave China.

Balding has a prolific presence on Twitter, which is blocked in China, and frequently appears in the media commenting on issues related to the Chinese economy, including as a television commentator for Bloomberg and in opinion pieces for Bloomberg and Foreign Policy. In August of last year, Balding spearheaded a petition calling on Cambridge University Press to resist the Chinese government’s demand that it censor articles in the China Quarterly journal. (Cambridge originally assented to the government’s request to block access to hundreds of journal articles in mainland China, but reversed course after coming under heavy criticism from academics like Balding.)...

probably a good idea. I didn't think he was safe either. In fact I was waiting for him to be deported to establish some canary in a coalmine parameters for just how vocal an opponent of the government one could be.

Given the number of Chinese folk I see in Oz, there should now be plenty of room left in China for more people.

I had a feeling they'd relax the policy further.  I'm just a little surprised that they are taking it all the way (instead of having a 3 child policy as the next step) and are planning to do this so soon.  Looks like 2020 is the target.

Given the number of Chinese folk I see in Oz, there should now be plenty of room left in China for more people.

LMAO!  You're outnumbered.

If one Chinese person in 50 moved to Australia, the population of Australia would more than double.

Give them time EL! I can tell you that I feel outnumbered at "the den". I often look around the room and find that I'm the only non Asian there. I know that there are quite a few really big Asian gamblers who play the tables. As for the "pokies",the majority that I see, play small amounts, but regularly. All I know is that it has become very hard to win on the pokies; I keep records.

Give them time EL! I can tell you that I feel outnumbered at "the den". I often look around the room and find that I'm the only non Asian there. I know that there are quite a few really big Asian gamblers who play the tables. As for the "pokies",the majority that I see, play small amounts, but regularly. All I know is that it has become very hard to win on the pokies; I keep records.

Sounds like your opponents are better at calculating the odds than you.  Either that or it's harder for you to spot those subtle "tells" to let you know who's bluffing.  You might want to spend a day or two just watching them play poker and see if you can catch any of those little details.  It should be easier to do while you don't have your own cards to worry about.

EL, I don't play table games and never have done. I only play the Poker Machines and then I only play 50cents a go an some machines and $1 on the others. I could not afford to play the tables with the minimum bet $20. The BIG table games gamblers are the Asian folks and it is usually the males.