Lean times ahead?

Nolefan, you make a good point about education being virtually recession proof in some respects. Public school jobs and probably some private universities will be a reliable option, but the buxiban system almost always takes some kind of a hit under these circumstances. The Eikawa business slowed down in parts of Japan back in the early nineties, once the bubble burst. While China won't have a bubble bursting like Japan did, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if some buxiban outfits down south slow down on hiring, and to compensate for money saved on a hiring freeze, they ask current employees to pick up any slack. So, some teachers will end up making a little more, but also working more. A buxiban may lose students and some income, but most good schools with good management should be able to compensate and weather the storm.

A bunch of final year post-grads rocked up tonight for a 'catch-up' with one of their group who has been working overseas for the past 18 months or so. The others are in the midst of job hunting and finding it very tough going.  One of them is in the final selection round for a job in Belgium; another one, from a different uni, has been successful and will start teaching at that uni, but in the translation school.  They were offering each other advice and experiences.  But the young fella who is just back from overseas will be sent back to Israel for 3 months - the downturn has meant that his company is pulling employees out of other countries, taking them back and providing training and skills upgrades for the duration.

They are talking about how few jobs are out there, how companies are only hiring the minimum replacement numbers, how older workers are being given early retirement. 

It was great to catch up with them again - a very lively energetic bunch, with lots of interesting stuff happening with them all - but a little sad to see how worried they were.

Nolefan, you make a good point about education being virtually recession proof in some respects. Public school jobs and probably some private universities will be a reliable option, but the buxiban system almost always takes some kind of a hit under these circumstances. The Eikawa business slowed down in parts of Japan back in the early nineties, once the bubble burst. While China won't have a bubble bursting like Japan did, I certainly wouldn't be surprised if some buxiban outfits down south slow down on hiring, and to compensate for money saved on a hiring freeze, they ask current employees to pick up any slack. So, some teachers will end up making a little more, but also working more. A buxiban may lose students and some income, but most good schools with good management should be able to compensate and weather the storm.

yes indeed! I hardly consider the buxiban system as part of education! The words bloodsuckers, ars---les, bastards come to mind when I think of them. As far as they're concerned, i think they fall in the general business category where a decent business plan and sound management  is needed to survive. and by golly a lot will go down in flames!!!
Vivid English in Beijing shut down on monday after the owner ran away with student money and left everyone hanging with no salaries or anything... just vanished! They occupied 2 whole floors of the building i work in and it ain't no cheap rent around there.. this one is even harder to understand because they actually had plenty of students and had been there since before i started working in that building...

I think a lot of Chinese English schools- and many other businesses in China- have NO long-range plans. I think many of them start with a number- the amount of money they want to make- and work backwards to decide prices, number of customers, and so on.
I think in many cases, once the owner has reached the magic number, they either sell the business (especially when times are good) or fold up the tent, grab all the money they can, and run away.

That might explain things like Vivid English, which might have met their Magic Number.
It might also explain things like all those restaurants etc. that go on day after day, year after year, apparently with no customers, still waiting to meet that number...

Would I be right in saying salaries haven't really gone up in China in the last two or three years?

Are people feeling the pinch now that the cost of living is rising?  Or does the strength of the RMB against other currencies (I notice the pound is way down. 10RMB, compared with 15-16 when I first came to China) enable you to save more?

From what I can tell, salaries have not risen for a while. As for the economic pinch, the money I am putting aside may not be worth as much when converted into Kroner as they would have been 2-3 years ago, but I am definitely not feeling any economic pressure here. Basically, I can put aside two-thirds of my salary every month and still live a rather comfortable existence.

That's good to hear Eric.  I suppose most teachers don't have rent/electric/gas bills to worry about, but what about things like taxis/restaurants/beer/train fares/hotels?  When I say 'feeling the pinch' I mean, not having to worry about money at all, even on a modest salary.  Being able to take taxis all the time, eat in nice restaurants and get drunk three times a week.  Going out with 100RMB in your pocket and knowing you're going to come home with plenty of change.  I don't know what kind of salaries people are on, so saving 2/3rds each month could mean you're living very cheaply, or you're getting paid very well 

Taxi prices in Xi'an are still the 6Y flagfall that they were when you were here.  Food prices have gone up - a bowl of the 'special' yang rou pao mo is now 10 rather than 7Y at my favourite little hole-in-the-wall.  You can still get drunk on local beer and baijiu/erguotou for less than 20-30Y.  Fancy restaurants are probably going to put a big hole in your 100Y, especially if you want to take a girl there.

I would confirm the consensus...I believe that salaries have NOT gone up for most teachers in China. In fact, I'd venture that on average, the salaries being offered foreign English teachers at private schools have gone DOWN. Schools have continued to wise up to how well-informed we aren't...especially if we aren't Saloon members.  In recent years there's just never been a shortage of folks who don't know any better, or don't care about the money, and are perfectly happy to leap at what we Saloonies know to be crappy salaries.

At the same time, tuition at private schools seems to have nudged up substantially. And I don't believe at all that enrollments in English programs are down. In Suzhou, at least, the numbers had been exploding, at least until the economic shit hit the economic fan.

Prices set by the governments- taxi fares, tuition in public schools and unis, salaries for teachers in public venues, and so on- may well change little or not at all. But the private sector has been on a roller-coaster ride that ain't over yet...

Some of the resulting "profit" has gone to inflation...it'd be pretty difficult, if not outright silly, to try and argue that costs of living and doing business in China have not gone up quite a bit- at least in the overheated economies of the Eastern end of the country.

The rest, of course, went where most was going anyway...helping beeg importance school owner mans drive beeg shiny blackuh cah.

This situation is not gonna change soon...not while the students/customers are feeling the pinch and ceasing to enroll in more classes. I'd just started seeing higher salaries hit the jobs boards a bit, but the global economic   -storm will probably nip that in the bud.

In the short run, a lot of us will probably be joining an awful lot of of other workers, from all walks, around the world: damn lucky to have a job at all, at ANY  salary.

The lean times are on us - and reading the following, the worst hasn't yet hit.  With a greater than expected downturn in exports and imports, companies won't be hiring English (or other language) speakers, workers won't have the funds to pay for classes while they wait it out.  Belt tightening will happen here as in every other nation affected. Fear of losing jobs will ensure that any spare money will be kept - so pretty soon Junior's piano, English, art classes will disappear.  I already have one student who cannot afford the fees for this university - 7,000 per YEAR - so may have to drop out. This will happen all over China.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24783934-5017997,00.html

I just saw the dropping exports stat here today on TV.  It could be a blip, or the 1st drip from the dike.  I'd bet on the letter.    The other stat I saw was that foreign investment has dropped by 36 percent  - in what period, I forget.  Things should get tighter in our industry, but then it was so slack in the first place that I for one ain't that worried.

Raoul, this is subjective, but I believe the bottom rate for FTs has gone up since I've lived in Suzhou.  But as I said, that's subjective, since MY pay has risen.  That's a function of seniority, guanxi and savvy... but the newbies I've talked to are not getting screwed, IMHO.

I'd venture that they get connected to the laowai crowd better than before as well.

No, ilunga, my salary is the normal 5000 RMB from a state uni. I live in the boons though, so that may have something to do with it. I have a contract where the uni pays electricity/water up to 100 RMB per month. So far, I haven't spent more than that on those things.
As for the other stuff, each month I and a colleague head to Hangzhou for a night of decadence. Stay at fancy hotels for two nights and hit the local Pizza huts and clubs in the evening. I mean, those things will always be expensive. I would say that I am feeling richer now than I did when I had a full-time embassy job in Europe.

I can certainly understand that Eric.  Conversely I feel less well-off now, earning over five times as much (in sterling equivalent) as I did in Luoyang back in the day.  I just wonder if it would still be such a comfortable existence today on 4000RMB a month.  Perhaps it would, dependant on location.  And it would be good to be able to save in a currency that is very strong at the moment. 
It's good to know taxis in Xi'an still start at 6RMB.  When I say 'nice restaurants' I just mean good food really.  Nothing fancy, hotpot or a few dishes like yu xiang rou si, gong bao ji ding etc.  Lotus, I always thought yang rou pao mo was rip-off at 7RMB.  Give me a bowl of hu la tang anyday 

Found out today that a company class I've been teaching for a year and half will not continue with English lessons after the current contract ends (just after Spring Festival).  New York warehouses have a surplus of their product and demand is down.  English lessons for employees are surplus in a tightening economy. 

I expected this.  I'm not upset about it because I've been at the same company for 2 hours every Saturday for a year and half, and frankly, I'm tired of it.  The students are lovely people, even if they struggle with English, and the money has been a welcome addition to my income, but I'm ready to stop.

This, and a couple of other jobs I like to think of as 'gravy', have allowed me to bank all of my uni salary.  I just might have to start dipping into my main income source if these other jobs dry up.

Raoul, this is subjective, but I believe the bottom rate for FTs has gone up since I've lived in Suzhou.  But as I said, that's subjective, since MY pay has risen.

Sure, this will generally be a subjective perception unless you're doing a formal large-scale survey.

MY subjective perception was based on looking at lots of ads from lots of sources. Nothing scientific, but fairly large in scale.

It used to be fairly easy to find training center jobs that had demanding schedules- things like 25 hours or more a week in the classroom, plus the dread office hours- that somewhat compensated somewhat by offering monthly salaries around 10,000 RMB or more.

More recently, those jobs were still around...and paying more like 7,000.

I thought I'd finally seen a spike back up as the post-Olympic horror had reduced our numbers...but the economic downturn now will get rid of that tout suite...