What's in the water in USA?

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A-Train

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #210 on: November 27, 2012, 07:23:31 PM »
Quite an epistle by elzoog. I won't extend this conversation much further but there are a couple of his points that can't be gotten away with.

When you say that the Stimulus package was initiated by Bush are giving credit to him or blame? Or just trying to minimize Obama? Because if you recall the moment, it was bi-partisan effort and the Bush people asked President-elect Obama if he wanted it passed during lame-duck session or after he took office; he chose the former.

To go on and on about the size of the package seems futile. The fact is that it wasn't big enough; $.8 trillion in a $15 trillion economy, (I assume your $30 trillion number is a typo), and that it was mitigated by state-level spending cuts that actually outstripped the size of the stimulus as early as late 2009 http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/09/09/816761/flabbergasted-rand-paul-learns-public-employment-decreased-under-obama/?mobile=nc.

"Well the last time I didn't have much money, I had to eat noodles because I couldn't afford steak.".  If the government followed that path it would have accelerated and deepened the recession. This is exactly what Hoover did in '31 and '32 with results that we now know had the opposite of the intended effect.  So, unless you're in love with '30's level suffering, I think we can consider that lesson learned. If not convinced, see U.K. over the past two years.

"...except for the long recession of 1872?  You know, where the banks failed and President Grant decided NOT to bail them out?".  Really? That's your analogy? Because the manufacturing and financial industries have undergone a few fundamental changes in the past 140 years. I'm no fan of the bailout, but you can't possibly think that the effect of a financial collapse in pre-industrial revolution 1872 is comparable to 2008?

I couldn't agree with you more about the ill effects of the bailouts. I think it had to be done as a tourniquet, but far more changes should be in place to stop this from ever happening again.

What general changes?  The general liberalization that is now out front after taking a back seat since the Reagan era. Examples?  Gay rights, passing of marijuana laws, increased taxation on the wealthy, Obamacare now ratified and permanent, next will be immigration reform.

Now let's just wait for those old, conservative geezers on the Supreme court to start retiring over the next four years.

"The young do not know enough to be prudent, and therefore attempt the impossible and achieve it, generation after generation.

Pearl S. Buck

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elzoog

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #211 on: November 30, 2012, 11:13:11 AM »
I didn't know they gave PhD's in the history of geology. mmmmmmmmmm

Technically, he's correct.  The exact age of the earth would be a little hard to determine if there isn't an exact definition of when the coalescing debris officially achieved planetary status and if no one was there to note the exact day when this happened.

Geologically speaking, it's hard to pin it down with an accuracy of less than plus or minus a hundred million years or so.




http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/faq-age-of-earth.html


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elzoog

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #212 on: November 30, 2012, 11:54:33 AM »
Quite an epistle by elzoog. I won't extend this conversation much further but there are a couple of his points that can't be gotten away with.

I'm sorry that you don't understand my basic point.

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When you say that the Stimulus package was initiated by Bush are giving credit to him or blame? Or just trying to minimize Obama?

I am saying that it's hypocritical to praise Obama for doing the same thing that Bush did, or for blaming Bush for doing something and not also blaming Obama for doing THAT SAME THING.

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Because if you recall the moment, it was bi-partisan effort and the Bush people asked President-elect Obama if he wanted it passed during lame-duck session or after he took office; he chose the former.

To go on and on about the size of the package seems futile. The fact is that it wasn't big enough; $.8 trillion in a $15 trillion economy, (I assume your $30 trillion number is a typo), and that it was mitigated by state-level spending cuts that actually outstripped the size of the stimulus as early as late 2009 http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2012/09/09/816761/flabbergasted-rand-paul-learns-public-employment-decreased-under-obama/?mobile=nc.

You are aware that if the states also spent money they didn't have that they too would be running a deficit?

Also, 0.8 trillion is about 5% of 15 trillion.  Let's suppose you spend 5% of your yearly income on something, but you didn't know what you spent it on.   All you know is that 5% of your income was spent on something.   Wouldn't you be curious about where that money went?

Where did this 0.8 trillion go?

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"Well the last time I didn't have much money, I had to eat noodles because I couldn't afford steak.".  If the government followed that path it would have accelerated and deepened the recession. This is exactly what Hoover did in '31 and '32 with results that we now know had the opposite of the intended effect.

Hoover in response to the Great Depression, ".. spent $500 million a year on public works and government programs to build or improve government properties."

He also made businesses keep wages high instead of cutting wages.

Source:  http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_did_Herbert_Hoover_do_in_response_to_the_great_depression

In other words:

1)  He made businesses spend more than they otherwise would have by not allowing them to cut wages.
2)  He increased government spending on governmental works, of which the HOOVER DAM is an example.

By the way, his policies created uncertainty in the economy causing people to not invest.  I wonder what's happening now that Obama has been re-elected.

http://www.localnews8.com/lifestyle/money/Investors-brace-for-capital-gains-tax-hikes/-/461672/17388546/-/rl6ttf/-/index.html


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  So, unless you're in love with '30's level suffering, I think we can consider that lesson learned. If not convinced, see U.K. over the past two years.

"...except for the long recession of 1872?  You know, where the banks failed and President Grant decided NOT to bail them out?".  Really? That's your analogy? Because the manufacturing and financial industries have undergone a few fundamental changes in the past 140 years.

You mean that the banks don't engage in risky investments like they did 140 years ago?

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I'm no fan of the bailout, but you can't possibly think that the effect of a financial collapse in pre-industrial revolution 1872 is comparable to 2008?

1872 would be AFTER the industrial revolution.

Source:  http://www.questia.com/read/77198082/the-industrial-revolution-1760-1830

What was it I heard about "those who are ignorant of history"?

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I couldn't agree with you more about the ill effects of the bailouts. I think it had to be done as a tourniquet, but far more changes should be in place to stop this from ever happening again.

What general changes?  The general liberalization that is now out front after taking a back seat since the Reagan era. Examples?  Gay rights, passing of marijuana laws, increased taxation on the wealthy, Obamacare now ratified and permanent, next will be immigration reform.

Gay rights have nothing to do with whether or not we have economic problems.   A gay marriage has just as much of a chance at being as miserable as a heterosexual one.

Companies are already raising prices on the consumer in response to Obamacare.  I guess if making people pay more for goods and services is something you consider good for the economy, then I guess Obamacare is good for the economy.

As far as immigration reform, the US already has the most "liberal" (by that I mean being lax on illegal immigrants) than most of the civilized world.   Try being an illegal immigrant in China for example and let's see what they do to you.

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George

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #213 on: December 27, 2012, 08:45:11 AM »
Just another amusing little quote...
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"He wanted to be president less than anyone I've met in my life. He had no desire to...run. If he could have found someone else to take his place...he would have been ecstatic to step aside."
—Tagg Romney on his father Mitt
The higher they fly, the fewer!    http://neilson.aminus3.com/

Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #214 on: December 27, 2012, 05:51:21 PM »
Just another amusing little quote...
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"He wanted to be president less than anyone I've met in my life. He had no desire to...run. If he could have found someone else to take his place...he would have been ecstatic to step aside."
—Tagg Romney on his father Mitt

As much as it pains me to defend Mitt Romney, that quote really needs some context. I can see why most sane people would not want to be president -- especially right now. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the gist of this was "It wasn't his personal ambition that drove him to run for president, but he felt he had a duty to his country."

Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #215 on: December 28, 2012, 01:40:29 AM »
Yes, yes, after he flip-flopped his way to losing the election, it is now revealed that he really did not want the Oval Office at all...right...I said the same when I failed my Phonetics Exam the first time...I studied rather hard for it but I actually did not want to pass at all...nope...
"Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination." Oscar Wilde.

"It's all oojah cum spiffy". Bertie Wooster.
"The stars are God's daisy chain" Madeleine Bassett.

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A-Train

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #216 on: December 28, 2012, 08:57:07 AM »
He spent over six years and God knows how much money to run TWICE but he didn't really want to???  And Bill Clinton didn't inhale.
"The young do not know enough to be prudent, and therefore attempt the impossible and achieve it, generation after generation.

Pearl S. Buck

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A-Train

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #217 on: December 28, 2012, 09:07:54 AM »
Quite an epistle by elzoog. I won't extend this conversation much further but there are a couple of his points that can't be gotten away with.

Whew...how did I overlook this duzey. The topic is stale and boring now, but I feel obliged to mention that Hoover stressed a balanced budget and tight monetary policy during the beginning of the Great Depression. Keynes, (and ten years of suffering), taught us the folly of that policy during a downturn.

It boils down to this question..."Do you think the economy would be better off if the stimulus had NOT been passed?". 
"The young do not know enough to be prudent, and therefore attempt the impossible and achieve it, generation after generation.

Pearl S. Buck

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caley1313

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #218 on: December 28, 2012, 01:06:15 PM »
Actually, there's not much wrong with the water in America. The wallowing snakes will be back in session (Congress) on Sunday/Monday. By that time, one would hope they're looking at personal financial portfolios that will have lost as much as 5% in the preceding week. The sweat will bead on their collective brow, their asses will be in a pucker position, and it will be time to do what's right for the pocket book of each and every around the hallowed hall. I suspect Mr. Boehner will throw up his arms and concede that each GOP member will be asked to vote according to his/her conscience (oxymoron here...GOP and conscience in the same sentence) and do what's right for America in this time of financial turmoil. The flaws of democracy: Oily old farts and trays of special interest monies, and slack laws that permit it all. And a belated Merry Xmas and Happy Festive Season to all. 
Carpe Diem, mi amigo, or...Seize the Big Fish as they say here in Carolina

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A-Train

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #219 on: December 29, 2012, 11:17:09 AM »
...By that time, one would hope they're looking at personal financial portfolios that will have lost as much as 5% in the preceding week...and it will be time to do what's right...

I'm starting to believe that they won't fix this before the next session. Boehner and Obama are in alignment, but thanks to gerrymandering, the Republicans are dug in on doctrine. Boehner would have to move left in order to get ALL Democrats and enough Republicans to make it pass which would be political suicide for him. I would not want his job.

"The young do not know enough to be prudent, and therefore attempt the impossible and achieve it, generation after generation.

Pearl S. Buck

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elzoog

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #220 on: December 29, 2012, 02:11:05 PM »
Quite an epistle by elzoog. I won't extend this conversation much further but there are a couple of his points that can't be gotten away with.

Whew...how did I overlook this duzey. The topic is stale and boring now, but I feel obliged to mention that Hoover stressed a balanced budget and tight monetary policy during the beginning of the Great Depression. Keynes, (and ten years of suffering), taught us the folly of that policy during a downturn.

It boils down to this question..."Do you think the economy would be better off if the stimulus had NOT been passed?". 

Incorrect:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/06/AR2009040603355.html

"William Hettinger [letters, April 3] rewrote history by falsely claiming that "President Herbert Hoover's response" to the 1929 stock market crash "was to balance the federal budget." Hoover actually ran up massive deficits, as the federal Office of Management and Budget notes. "

Paradoxically, liberal economists blame Hoover's tax increases for exacerbating the Great Depression.  Guess what liberals want to do in the current recession.   Raise taxes on the rich..  Funny how liberals don't really believe their own ideology. 

Not to mention the fact that raising taxes on the rich will not pay for the deficit.

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George

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #221 on: December 29, 2012, 06:45:45 PM »
 bibibibibi
If one is replying to a
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one should simply reply OUTSIDE the original bloody quote. Then we would know who said what to who!! asasasasas
The higher they fly, the fewer!    http://neilson.aminus3.com/

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A-Train

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #222 on: December 30, 2012, 07:24:18 AM »
@elzoog:  You didn't answer the question.  Would the economy be better or worse if we had NOT passed the stimulus packages?

Saying Hoover was a deficit spender is the conservative participation in revisionist history, (along with declaring Nixon as a liberal). In 1931 he both increased taxes and decreased spending in the sacred name of a balanced budget.

Hoovers own words on March 8th, 1932..."Nothing is more important than balancing the budget with the least increase in taxes. The Federal Government should be in such position that it will need issue no securities which increase the public debt after the beginning of the next fiscal year, July 1".  http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=23478

The spending in 1932 you refer to, (Golden Gate Bridge etc.), came far too late and was far too little. That year he also signed the Smoot-Hawley Act, the largest tariff in U.S. History against the advice of all major economists; effectively raising taxes and prices.

As for the advocating of an increase in taxes on the wealthiest 2% of U.S. citizens being a liberal hypocrisy? It's one I have no problem living with given the enormous tax breaks and subsidies they have received over the past 30 years and the relatively stable recovery we're in.
"The young do not know enough to be prudent, and therefore attempt the impossible and achieve it, generation after generation.

Pearl S. Buck

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elzoog

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #223 on: December 30, 2012, 08:41:12 PM »
@elzoog:  You didn't answer the question.  Would the economy be better or worse if we had NOT passed the stimulus packages?

It's impossible to say.  Ever hear of the broken window fallacy?  It goes like this.  If we have teenagers going through town breaking windows, it's good for the economy.  It would give window makers and glass manufacturers jobs.   It would also give jobs to people who have to clean up the glass and it would give jobs to people that have to deliver the glass.

The reason this is a fallacy is that you see those benefits but you don't see the HIDDEN things.  Like for example, if the business owner didn't have to fix his window, he could have used that money to buy something else.  The people who spend time making the windows could have spent their time doing something else, and so forth.  It's this SOMETHING ELSE that you DON'T SEE that shows it as a fallacy.

Likewise, since I haven't seen the actual results of "no stimulus in 2008" I can't say if it would be worse or better.   All I can do is compare it to the past and the only past example I can think of, is 1872 when president Grant decided to not bail out the banks.  It's hard to say that the economy of 2010 would be as bad as the economy of 1874 because there are too many other factors going on.

What tells me that the stimulus is probably a BAD idea though, is that most of that money went to people who made bad financial decisions.   If the result of making a bad financial decision is that the government gives you millions of dollars than guess what?  More people are going to make bad financial decisions!

If you don't think the government would be stupid enough to break windows in order to stimulate the economy, consider the "cash for clunkers" program.

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Saying Hoover was a deficit spender is the conservative participation in revisionist history,

I guess saying Hoover was a man is revisionist history too since "man" has a certain definition, and Hoover happens to fit that definition.

Llkewise, "deficit spending" has the definition that you spend more than you take in in revenue (in the 1930s this could include tarriffs as well as taxes).  Specifically, the debt went from 20% of the GNP in 1929, to 40% of the GNP at the end of Hoover's term.

Specifically, at the end of Hoover's term, the deficit was about 4 billion dollars.  So "deficit spending" is a term that accurately describes what Hoover did.

He didn't want to spend money on "welfare", however he did spend money on government projects such as the HOOVER DAM.   Notice, that HOOVER is part of the name of that dam?



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(along with declaring Nixon as a liberal).

You realize that many "liberal" policies were started by Nixon right?  Such as the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency).  To be fair though, the "liberal" policies of Nixon were initiated by outside pressure.

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In 1931 he both increased taxes and decreased spending in the sacred name of a balanced budget.

He didn't decrease spending overall.  He merely decreased spending on things liberals like. 

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Hoovers own words on March 8th, 1932..."Nothing is more important than balancing the budget with the least increase in taxes. The Federal Government should be in such position that it will need issue no securities which increase the public debt after the beginning of the next fiscal year, July 1".  http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=23478

Yeah, sort of like Reagan saying in his inaugural address in 1981 that government is the problem, and then increased government more rapidly than any other previous president.

Or the famous, "Read my lips.  No new taxes." of Bush in the 1990s.

I would have though that someone that has lived through at least the 1990s would have learned that you judge a president on what he DOES and not what he "says".

The FACT that Hoover ran a deficit is pretty easy to check and verify A-Train.

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The spending in 1932 you refer to, (Golden Gate Bridge etc.), came far too late and was far too little. That year he also signed the Smoot-Hawley Act, the largest tariff in U.S. History against the advice of all major economists; effectively raising taxes and prices.

The Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act was signed in June of 1930, not 1932.

By the way, many economists today say that Obama should cut entitlement spending.  Do you think Obama will do that, or do you think he will go against the advice of economists like Hoover did?


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As for the advocating of an increase in taxes on the wealthiest 2% of U.S. citizens being a liberal hypocrisy?

That's not why I think liberals are hypocrites.

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It's one I have no problem living with given the enormous tax breaks and subsidies they have received over the past 30 years and the relatively stable recovery we're in.

You mean, other than the rather minor detail being that it won't actually work?

The debt currently is at about 16.3 trillion dollars 
(source:  http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
If we were to not only tax, but simply confiscate the wealth of the top 2%, it would not be enough to pay for a 16 trillion dollar deficit.

For example, Bill Gates is currently worth about $65 billion dollars
(source:  http://www.forbes.com/profile/bill-gates/ )

So we would need about 246 Bill Gates to pay for the 16 trillion dollar deficit.  Given that Bill Gates is in the top 5 of the richest men in the world, we don't in fact have 246 Bill Gates.   So obviously, we will need more than 246 people to pay for the debt.  Given that we have 300 million people in America you would think that wouldn't be hard to do.

Unfortunately, when you do the numbers, if you add up all of the wealth of the top 2%, you still won't have enough to pay 16 trillion dollars.  (I did this myself with the top 500 people and got that result). 

By the way, the current GNP of the entire United States is $15.23 Trillion:
(Source:  https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gnp_mktp_pp_cd&idim=country:USA&dl=en&hl=en&q=us%20gnp )

In other words, the current debt is now GREATER than the entire GNP of the entire country.

What I would say is, that this debt will NEVER be paid back and that what we need to do is face the music of whatever the fallout will be of not paying the debt.


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caley1313

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Re: What's in the water in USA?
« Reply #224 on: December 31, 2012, 04:46:03 AM »
I posted this interesting ditty of a perspective on the Fiscal Cliff, which came from my bright young Canuck daughter, whose only pleasant feeling on things American is South Beach in March. Thought you'd all get a chuckle. Caley

<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/tarheel1313/8326082358/" title="Fiscal Cliff by Donald H. Allison, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8084/8326082358_ebea0c45e6_c.jpg" width="600" height="800" alt="Fiscal Cliff"></a>
Carpe Diem, mi amigo, or...Seize the Big Fish as they say here in Carolina