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91
The Champagne Cabana / Re: Jokes from my trashbin
« Last post by Calach Pfeffer on July 08, 2022, 11:50:59 PM »
Doctor says you've got hypochondria
Oh god, not that too.
92
let's hope we get a little more sanity in a lot of places before 2025.

from The Devil's Dictionary: To ask for something with an earnestness proportioned to the belief that it will not be given.
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"It will have its narrative ready to go, accusing the other country of some gross threat or violation. It will incite the Chinese people and muddy the international view of what actually took place. China will call for calm and dialogue, but will be uncompromising in asserting its rights over the area the incident took place."


Thank you for your service
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Let's hope the US gets someone more rational in the White House by 2025.  Cutting back on the provocations near China and its territories and reducing weapons sales to TW would go a long way towards de-escalating the situation.

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I wonder if it will be a matter of "join".

The suggestion that...

Excerpted from: ‘Disaster just around the corner’: Australia must not misread China’s deadly strategy

When it launches its attack, China will feel that it has given the West fair warning. It has for many years protested surveillance activities by aircraft and ships in waters close to its coast. Those protests have grown increasingly belligerent. The action against Australian and Canadian aircraft and declaring sovereignty over the Taiwan Strait further signal China’s serious escalation. More is to come.

This is bad news for Australia, because China will not de-escalate. Rather, even more severe action can be expected if the flights continue.

China is a sophisticated power and strategist. When it launches a lethal attack, several parameters will be evident. First, China will attack an ally of the US, not the US itself. That will delay and complicate the US response because the US itself is not under attack. The second is that China’s attack will be at a time and place that disadvantages the West – US carriers not in theatre; some other major distraction for the US. Third, China’s post-attack phase will already be in place. It will have its narrative ready to go, accusing the other country of some gross threat or violation. It will incite the Chinese people and muddy the international view of what actually took place. China will call for calm and dialogue, but will be uncompromising in asserting its rights over the area the incident took place.


Seems pretty compelling. And Australia seems like a fairly well-warned target. Market dis-integration has been going on for a couple of years. Not that many Australians in China to worry about. Not right next door to the Americas. AUKUS won't yield actual subs for years. Etc and so on. Knocking down a Japanese or Korean plane presumably is ill-advised because lots of other planes would be in the air very quickly. As for Canadians? Bigger market than Oz, right?

So, "join"?

Maybe just be Prince Ferdinand.
97
The Champagne Cabana / Re: What's in the News
« Last post by Calach Pfeffer on July 01, 2022, 10:29:32 PM »
I suppose if China would like to normalize shots across the bow, we'll have to start arming the windsurfers.
98
The Champagne Cabana / Re: What's in the News
« Last post by Calach Pfeffer on July 01, 2022, 10:25:50 PM »
[...] and along the edges of claimed US, Canadian and Australian waters.

Australia says Chinese spy ship's presence off west coast 'concerning'

SYDNEY, May 13 (Reuters) - A Chinese intelligence ship was tracked off Australia's west coast within 50 nautical miles of a sensitive defence facility, Australia said on Friday, raising concern amid an election campaign about China's behaviour in the region.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the Chinese navy vessel was not in Australian territorial waters but its presence was "concerning".

"It is clearly an intelligence ship and they are looking at us and we're keeping a close eye on them," he told reporters....



They were there for the kayaking.
99
The Champagne Cabana / Re: What's in the News
« Last post by Escaped Lunatic on July 01, 2022, 05:14:38 PM »
Let's think about this.  Australia and Canada (yes, Canada) start poking around near islands claimed by China and are completely shocked to find Chinese jets arrive to chase them off.

How would Canada and Australia react if Chinese surveillance aircraft got a little too close to their most distant claimed offshore islands?  When answering, remember that the very thought of Chinese military ships being allowed to dock and take on supplies in the Solomon Islands (an INDEPENDENT country a few thousand km away from Australia) has Australia completely freaked out over how close those Chinese ships will be to their coastline.

Multiple countries have disputes over islands in the SCS.  Multiple countries are building up some areas into artificial islands.  Multiple countries are setting up radar stations and air defenses.  Personally, I think countries that are not parties to the disputes sending in military ships and aircraft into disputed waters so they can bound their chests about the missions being legal and somehow important to Australian (and Canadian! ahahahahah) security interests put the entire region at increased risk of an incident.  Of course, that's always a great excuse for those outsiders to waste more and more taxpayer and gov't bond (borrowed) money on military hardware.

Remember, if it's OK for the US, Australia, and Canada to stick their beaks in, then they should  be happy roll out the welcome mat for ships and planes from Iceland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea, Nigeria, Iraq, Colombia, Morocco, Venezuela, Iran, Somalia, Pakistan, Brazil, and more to join the party in the SCS and along the edges of claimed US, Canadian and Australian waters.
100
The Champagne Cabana / Re: What's in the News
« Last post by Calach Pfeffer on July 01, 2022, 02:43:39 PM »
‘Disaster just around the corner’: Australia must not misread China’s deadly strategy

“Tactics without strategy is noise before defeat.” Chinese general, military strategist and philosopher Sun Tzu is too often quoted but can occasionally illuminate a real problem.

This week, when China sent a near record number of warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, it was more serious than previous incursions. A week earlier, China officially claimed the Taiwan Strait to be China’s sovereign territory. The West responded by reiterating legal arguments against the claim. But that misses the point. It is not a legal claim. Instead, China has declared its intent to act as if the Taiwan Strait is part of sovereign China. The difference has enormous implications, and we misread it at our peril.

Relatedly, a Chinese J-16 fighter intercepted an Australian P-8 surveillance aircraft near the Paracel Islands on May 26, 2022, and then damaged it with flares and chaff. Australia responded firmly. Minister for Defence Richard Marles declared Australia’s surveillance flights will continue because they are allowed under international law and are “fundamentally important to Australia’s security interests”. He may be right on both accounts, but the strength of Australia’s commitment will be severely tested.

Also on May 26, 2022, one of Canada’s surveillance aircraft was harassed by Chinese aircraft in another part of the Pacific. Canada also protested to the Chinese government. But rather than being apologetic, Chinese leaders robustly defended China’s actions and attacked Australia and Canada for violating China’s sovereignty.

Taken together, China’s actions signal a new, more assertive and deadly phase of its plan to secure its eastern seaboard by dominating the South China Sea. And China is only warming up. It has a plan to challenge the West’s commitment to military deployments in the South China Sea and divide the US from its allies....



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