Recent Posts

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21
Again with the idealism?

"we've entered a new phase of miserable great power relations, and it behooves us all to stop talking the bullshit of the previous phase"

That was me being idealistic, I guess.
22
You need to revisit China.  Yes, it has build some intersting weapons, but that's been the case of all countries with advance science.  You conveniently skip over the fact that China is putting larger efforts into not only civilian use technology, but also into basic research.  No one's going to weaponize the world's largest radio telescope any more than NASA's Hubble and Web Telescopes.  Your Darth Vader reference is amusing, but misguided.

Weapons didn't lift people out of poverty.  Improved agricultural techniques and improved economic opportunities for the impoverished did.

You really should do some research on more recent Chinese technological developments.  Check the US Patent Office to see how many patents Huawei and BOE got last year.  Check the amounts of scientific and medical data shared in major journals.  Then come back and try to pretend that paper was the last "worthy" item invented in China.


I'm a space fanatic.  I'll let you in on a little secret I figured out watching China's space program.  The time lags between the first few crewed launches drove me bonkers.  WHY WHY WHY wouldn't they launch faster?  Outside hate is strong too.  Every time China accomplishes something in space, it gets attacked as copied, will fall apart in 10 seconds, a piece of a Death Star (or a Force focusing weapon if you like), and allegedly proves that there's a brand new SPACE RACE.  Stop and think.  If it really was all copied, China could never pass the US, so the US already won the race before starting.  If it was all going to fall apart in 10 seconds, it could never win the race or make a useful weapon.  But the critical secret is . . .

China is NOT racing the US in space.  China's space plans are laid out long in advance and progress is at a stately pace to help avoid bad things like the Apollo 1 fire.

Similarly, China isn't trying to be economically bigger than the US.  China is growing its economy to help it's own people and helps other economies grow which provides more trade opportunities which helps its economy grow more.  If China's population was only 50 million, the same economic growth rates from impoverished towards prosperity would not have even ruffled the feathers of US hawks.  China will continue to try to grow in a fast, but stable fashion whether the US economy doubles tomorrow or falls into Great Depression II tomorrow.

China wants to progress.  If it can do this in beneficial cooperation with others, great.  If not, China will march on anyway.  Happily for China, the majority of nations (including the USA) seem more than willing to continue economic cooperation.

Sadly, at current rates, I think we're about 20 years from China and India having to provide massive foreign aid to keep Americans from starving.
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That's to say, since Chinese appear mostly to undermine, not build up, the world, their's is not a "rise".
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To the extent that US practice impoverishes it's own people, it is in decline. The more wealth is concentrated, the more rigidly maintained those mechanisms for concentration, the less the nation as represented by it people can be great. That seems to be the way it works in America.

But if "the west" had its origin in the Ancient Greeks, stories of decline are nativist entertainment. Even talk of hegemons is misguided.



Science isn't uniquely western, but I do think the eastern approach is destructive of scientific knowledge. Which, by the way, means China IS Darth Vader. "Don’t be too proud of this technological terror you’ve constructed. The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the [East]."

That technological terror, though, that's what enabled all those people in poverty in China to be "lifted" to less absolute a poverty. China did it. With the tools of global interconnectedness.

I don't think China can sustain as productive, and terrible, an empire as the US and the Europeans have done. For better or worse, we'll be poorer, and dumber, and saddled with duller entertainment, under the Chinese thumb. It'd actually be bizarre if somehow western crisis collectivism somehow didn't respond to being so bored.


That's probably one of the stronger reasons China keeps trying to separate western powers. Don't trust the US, don't be led by others, you're in decline, know your place. It's telling just how miserable the Chinese approach to other powers is.


The "decline" of the US is the "rise" of China inasmuch as the condition described by US "decline" is kind of an ideal world. That "rise" isn't a rise to prominence of glorious, what achievement? It's a settling at a lower level.


Papermaking, printing, gunpowder and the compass. Anything else over "5000" years? What were the social and cultural achievements? Pottery?

Seriously, why is it going to be a better world for most people?
25
The Champagne Cabana / Re: Enter the Squeaker
« Last post by Escaped Lunatic on August 10, 2022, 06:31:25 PM »
Today, it's been 3 years since we found the tiny little ball of squeaky cuteness.

Happy Adoption Day Pandora!
I'm still not sure if we adopted her or she adopted us. ahahahahah
26
I'll agree it's a new phase.  I'd say changing from coldwar dialogue would be a huge step in the right direction.

You might want to consider Chinese history.  Unlike the US and unlike the European empires in the Age of Exploration Colonization, China keeps any military disagreements close to home.  In the 1400's, China had the world's biggest fleet which included the world's biggest ships.  The "Treasure Fleet" got it's name for carrying treasure outward to establish trade.  They also had more than enough soldiers to protect the ships and deal with pirates.

The fleet went as far as Africa.  Countries weren't conquered and colonized.  They were recruited as trading partners.  Yes, it wasn't perfect.  Some interference in local affairs happened in some places.  At least one local king who ran piracy operations against his neighbors found out the hard way not to try piracy against a giant fleet, but overall it was minor compared to what was just beginning to get cranked up by the Europeans.

Sadly, the growth of richer and richer merchants threatened some of the political elite enough that the voyages were ended and the larger ships were destroyed.  Yes, you could try to stretch this to the present, but reigning in some giant corporations with fines and breaking up monopolies also happens in the USA+vassals camp too.  If the US doesn't decide to try a bit more reigning in, wait and see what happens when Amazon starts buying up defense contractors.

Compare that to what Europeans did to North America, South America, Africa, SE Asia, and that place inhabited by kangaroos, koala's, and some guy called Calach.

After the end of the Treasure Fleet, I suspect it would be very difficult to find any significant military activities involving China further away from the mainland than than the SCS.  This is unlike the US, which feels free to invade globally and, like a proper bully, tries to drag a few followers along to help (and help absorb some of the damage directed at the bully).

If the US would keep itself out of Asia, defense budgets, including China's, could be reduced.  The US itself would then be able to cut its own defense budget, if Congress (where the weapons industry is a huge supplier of campaign funds) were to agree.

In the meantime, China is busy slashing tariffs for goods from the 16 poorest countries in the world.  Your fear of China suddenly deciding conquer the world isn't stopping the improvements this will bring to the lives of those who live in such countries.

The world is at a cross roads.  The US can continue to push to remain a hegemon (which as worked out VERY badly for so many countries, even democratic ones), or the world moves towards being multipolar.

Will a multipolar world be perfect?  Probably not.  Will it be better than world run by a fading hegemon willing to literally anything to remain as #1 both militarily and economically?  Probably.  Aggressively pushing for a war that could spiral out of control just to slow a hegemon's inevitable decline seems rather unfair to the rest of the planet.
27
Or, to sum up, I think we've entered a new phase of miserable great power relations, and it behooves us all to stop talking the bullshit of the previous phase. I think it's okay to call China on its bullshit and it's stupid and dangerous to lie.
28
"It's all your own fault if...." is not a way to talk about war.

"If you want China to be the enemy..." is not a way to talk about friendship.


War and enemies... most of the world knows about that stuff in their region. I don't think we'll see Chinese troops in Europe or the US and probably not in AU. But for the first time in a long time, conflict will be present in western daily lives. Infrastructure disruption and substantial economic fall out. Seems like the pandemic is presently providing us with a taste. Maybe that's at least partly why talk of war seems more real. The poor westerners have seem a little privation so now we know.

But I do think it's time to stop being shocked. Standing around horrified is peacetime privilege. Just like, I guess, making martial speeches is wartime privilege.


It'll be disruptive. But not everyone will die. Yay.
29
The most populous hierarchical society in the world believes in equal partnerships? You need to vist China some time.



Meanwhile, what should AU do? Decouple. Decouple like a motherfucker. And recognize ourselves as the least defensible continent in the world, and perhaps one of the least well defended societies in the world.

Respect the Chinese. Take them at their word. They want changes to occur in Australia and they're willing to use force. But they're weak. Economic power is destructive, but it isn't strength. They hate their own circumstances so much they don't want to make babies.

Raises a question. Emerging powers that see opportunities slipping away... do they let them go? No. And China won't. China and CCP are entirely big enough to consider the use of force viable.



The question is, engage with these motherfuckers or let them burn? But see, does engagement mean accepting China as an international economic powerhouse or does it mean proceeding with decoupling but use a lot of diplomacy to - somehow - avoid them being pissed off by their declining economic importance? Does let them burn mean sacrificing, say, Taiwan and all the nearby countries who can be intimidated now?

A few years are needed to unravel the international China narrative. All that bullshit about mutual respect and cold war mentality and rising and declining. The cloud of lies and murder. The west has been way too accommodating and needs to get it's act together. Signs suggest it will, and at the same time it will be too little too late.


Drumbeat of fucking war.
30
The BS-Wrestling Pit / Re: What if China really is "the good guy"?
« Last post by Calach Pfeffer on August 10, 2022, 03:35:18 PM »
CHINA CAUSED LUNG CANCER?!
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