What if China has peaked already?

  • 3 replies
  • 740 views
What if China has peaked already?
« on: September 26, 2021, 09:02:00 AM »
Hmm?


Re: What if China has peaked already?
« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2021, 12:39:40 PM »
How would we, for example, tell the difference between a great power on the rise naturally testing limits and seeking more global influence and, say, a very large middle power possessed of considerable economic strength but no longer seeing growth measured in orders of magnitude and suddenly, recently concerned that boundless economic gain no longer applies? Wouldn't they look just as belligerent? Wouldn't they be seeking, now, to grab what they can while they still can? Supply chains, territories, control over citizenry... the global impact they will no longer naturally rise toward and must instead use force to acquire.

It used to be that corruption was the older man's game. A lifetime spent eating bitter in expectation of the sweetness to come but finding as the years wore on that really the bitterness just continued and growth wasn't that great, so.....  But then corruption became the younger man's game, when growth was exponential and change was too fast and a lifetime of eating bitter counldn't be trusted, not in the face of such obvious sudden wealth.... But then rule of laws appeared and anti-corruption campaigns, and a concerted effort by the powers to stabilise the country... So what of now? What is corruption like now? Does it persist? Has it changed? What's the story of China now?

Impending demographic crisis, explosive growth in exports finishing, an economic transition into the higher end secondary industry kinda slow and super-questionable..... Isn't high tech production a small country's way into global influence? How can a country as large as China transition to high tech industry in any meaningful way without the vastly larger, qualitatively better education sector it won't have?


High tech economic growth has not been anything other than incremental for a long time even in the developed world. What super growth is going to come to China anymore?

Re: What if China has peaked already?
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2021, 05:32:59 PM »
A Dangerous Decade of Chinese Power Is Here

Beijing knows time isn’t on its side and wants to act fast.

U.S. and allied policymakers are facing the most important foreign-policy challenge of the 21st century. China’s power is peaking; so is the political position of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) domestic strength. In the long term, China’s likely decline after this peak is a good thing. But right now, it creates a decade of danger from a system that increasingly realizes it only has a short time to fulfill some of its most critical, long-held goals.

Within the next five years, China’s leaders are likely to conclude that its deteriorating demographic profile, structural economic problems, and technological estrangement from global innovation centers are eroding its leverage to annex Taiwan and achieve other major strategic objectives. As Xi internalizes these challenges, his foreign policy is likely to become even more accepting of risk, feeding on his nearly decadelong track record of successful revisionist action against the rules-based order. Notable examples include China occupying and militarizing sub-tidal features in the South China Sea, ramping up air and maritime incursions against Japan and Taiwan, pushing border challenges against India, occupying Bhutanese and Tan lands, perpetrating crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, and coercively enveloping Hong Kong.

The relatively low-hanging fruit is plucked, but Beijing is emboldened to grasp the biggest single revisionist prize:




[timothee chalamet]

*

kitano

  • *
  • 2569
    • Children of the Atom
Re: What if China has peaked already?
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2021, 08:37:57 AM »
I had an idea when they appointed Xi that the reason that they changed to such an authoritarian leader was because they had seen the number in 2012 and realised that in 10 years or so they were going to have a financial crisis and a Dengist capitalist leadership would not be able to crack down on people once the money was cut like a XJP would